Over the past century, Vashon has shifted from voting reliably Republican to voting just as reliably Democratic.

In 1924, a whopping 94% of the vote was split between Republican Calvin Coolidge (58%) and former Republican third-party Progressive candidate Robert Lafollette (36%), leaving Democrat John W. Davis with only 6% of the Vashon vote.

One hundred years later, Kamala Harris will likely win close to or over 90% of the Vashon vote, if results from the 2020 election hold true. (In that election, Joe Biden won 88% of the vote to Donald Trump’s 10% of the vote, and 2% of the vote went to third party candidates.)

Several factors contributed to this massive shift of Vashon from a Republican stronghold to a Democratic bastion.

First is the change in the nature of the two major political parties. The Republican Party has shifted from the party of Abraham Lincoln, supported by Union Civil War veterans with mid-western agrarian values in the early 20th century, to a “Make America Great Again” Republican Party supported by “culture war” veterans with populist values in the early 21st century.

Similarly, the Democratic Party shifted from a coalition of Southerners intent on preserving their privilege, and Northern immigrant-based urban political machines, to a broad-based coalition which now includes many “never-Trump” Republicans.

Vashon Island voters at the beginning of the 20th century were much more attuned to the values of the Lincoln Republicans and the progressive reform-centered values of the Republican Party. At the beginning of the 21st century, Vashon Island voters are much more attuned to the multicultural urban values of the Democratic Party.

Another factor contributing to the island’s shift is changing demographics on the island and across the Puget Sound region.

At the beginning of the 20th century, Vashon was primarily a natural resource extraction economy based on logging, fishing, mining, and farming. This economy was powered by American emigrants from the Midwest and immigrants from Northern and Southern Europe who transformed the island’s ecology. By the beginning of the 21st century, Vashon had become primarily a service and technology-based economy powered by professionals, retirees, and post-COVID urban escapists who have rapidly gentrified the Island.

Vashon voted reliably Republican until 1984, except for supporting Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 in response to Barry Goldwater’s saber-rattling extremism.

The 1980 election became the turning point for the Island. In 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan won the Island with 45% of the vote, but Democrat Jimmy Carter won 38% of the vote, and liberal Republican third-party candidate John Anderson won 17% of the vote. Combined, Carter and Anderson carried the island by 55%. This election was the last time a Republican would win the island’s presidential vote.

Since 1984, Vashon has voted reliably for the Democratic presidential candidate with increasingly larger percentages until, in the 2020 election, Joe Biden won with 87.5% of the island vote. In total, 6,559 islanders voted for Joe Biden (87.5%), 781 islanders voted for Donald Trump (19.4%), and 154 voted for third party candidates (2.1%).

I will not be surprised if, in this 2024 election, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the Island with over 90% of the vote.

Bruce Haulman is an island historian.