As housing prices escalate around the region, Vashon reflects the trend, with housing costs rising and people with moderate or lower incomes priced out of the market.
Through November of this year, 187 houses and condos were sold on Vashon with a median price of nearly $608,000 — a 14 percent increase over 2016, according to statistics Windermere Real Estate provided. That is on top of a 16 percent increase the year before. A look at the prices themselves shows that the median price was $350,000 just five years ago and $462,000 two years ago.
“This has been a great year for sellers and (bad) for buyers,” said buyer’s broker Emma Amiad. “Prices have skyrocketed, especially in the lower ranges.”
John L. Scott owner Ken Zaglin concurred.
“Demand for sellers is extremely high,” he said. “It is a great time to be a seller as long as you do not need to buy in the Puget Sound region.”
As Seattle’s home prices continue to rise — the median price there is more than $700,000 — Vashon’s market looks better in comparison, and there is stiff competition for many of the homes that come on the market. Windermere owner Beth de Groen noted 21 houses sold this year for more than $1 million, bringing the median price on Vashon way up. But even accounting for those sales, there is agreement that the island is increasingly unaffordable to many.
“Entire categories are just out of luck,” Amiad said. “The $400,000 and under buyers are out of luck. I have been sending people to other markets, like Port Orchard and Bremerton, but they are starting to go up and are expected to go up more with the (addition of) high speed boats.”
Zaglin, too, noted the lack of options for people looking in the more affordable ranges.
“One of the hardest things is getting a call from (school superintendent) Michael Soltman asking what can we look at for affordable housing solutions — to buy or rent — so we can retain teachers,” he said.
Vashon has the highest median income of any place in King County other than Mercer Island, de Groen said, and that shows in housing prices. She added that she moved to the island for its demographics mix and has been sad to see that mix change.
“The people with very little money are not here anymore for the most part,” she said.
Previously, Zaglin said, the island had some areas that were affordable to working families, including upper Gold Beach. It used to be those homes went for $250,000, but they are up to $425,000 or $450,000 — and those with a view going for more when they are available.
Similarly, Amiad tracked the sales history of a small home that closed recently on the north end. The 1,300-square foot home was built in 1962 and has three bedrooms and one and a half baths. It sits on a lot that abuts the highway and is in a residential neighborhood. In 2004, the home sold for $270,000; in 2005, it sold for $305,000; in 2015 it went for $329,000 and just last week it closed at $470,000.
“That’s damn near a half million dollars,” Amiad said.
At Evergreen Green Home Loans on Vashon, Patte Wagner crunched the numbers for that north-end home. Back when it was $270,000, the monthly mortgage would likely have been $1,000 a month less than it is now. That is a substantial difference, and one that many people’s incomes have not kept up with.
“That is one of the big problems,” she said. “People are spending more and more of their pay on housing.”
Longtime islander and firefighter Jason Everett recently began looking for a new home on the island and, in fact, visited that north-end home. He considered making an offer, but passed. There were only a handful of homes on the market around $500,000 or below — and most of what he saw depressed him. He noted that he previously lived in a manufactured home and does not believe he has set too high a bar: He would like privacy to play his music and not disturb the neighbors, a back deck for his morning coffee and some land to garden. But at the $500,000 price range with a $50,000 down payment, his monthly mortgage would be about $3,000. Had he proceeded with that house or any other in that range, he said he would have been eating beans and rice and eggs for the foreseeable future.
“I make a good living, but I could not afford it,” he said. “Three thousand dollars a month is just not doable for normal people.”
The rental market on Vashon is no more accessible than its housing market, and Everett is currently renting a home off-island, allowing time to reassess his housing options.
For his part, Zaglin said that Vashon’s increasing lack of affordability is invisible to many people. He noted that Vashon has a sizeable population with stable housing — homes that have long been paid off or are nearly so. It is not until those homeowners’ children move back to the island, hoping to buy a home, that the situation becomes clear and they realize the current realities, he said. He noted it will make a difference in the fabric of the community.
“Where are your locksmith, your electrician … your store clerk or your waitress going to live?” he said. “(They) are not going to be part of the housing mix on Vashon.”
While challenging for some, Vashon’s housing market is desirable for many people, particularly in comparison to prices elsewhere. Real estate agents are quick to note that it is a hot market, with multiple offers common, down payments of 50 percent or more and cash offers fairly routine.
Windermere’s de Groen said professionals who work in Seattle’s downtown core have turned to Vashon as a less expensive option than Seattle. On Vashon, they can pay $600,000 for a three-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath home, which they cannot find in the city.
“We have probably sold 100 parties some version of that this year,” she said.
Amiad noted that she has also seen an influx of retirees. Harley Goldberg and his wife Miriam are among them. Previously, they lived in the Santa Cruz mountains south of the San Francisco Bay area, but his wife came to Vashon for a class and fell in love with the island. Last week, Harley Goldberg recounted their story and said that after a lifetime of his profession calling the shots for the couple, he realized it was time for his wife to do so. Now, they both are extremely happy with the Dolphin Point home they purchased with Amiad’s assistance. She had told them they would need to act fast and may encounter multiple offers. When the house they bought came on the market, they made an offer within 24 hours. Initially, he said, they put in a routine offer with financing for the home, which he said was in their range of $600,000 to $700,000. But within a few hours he realized that offer might not be sufficient and that he had the flexibility to remove funds from a retirement account, allowing them to make a cash offer instead.
“Because of the cash offer, we were able to be first in line,” he said.
They moved in in August and have spent their time since then exploring Vashon with their puppy, going to a different place every day. He noted that retirement is a significant step in life — and moving to their home on Vashon has allowed them to let go of all that was and settle into this next phase.
“We have have totally loved it,” he said. “We count ourselves as very, very lucky.”
Looking ahead, both de Groen and Zaglin said that they believe the housing picture will remain a sellers’ market, but be less frenetic in part because of an anticipated softening of Seattle’s market and topping out there.
“There are only so many people that can afford a $900,000 Green Lake home,” Zaglin said.
But they expect demand to remain high on Vashon and throughout the area.
“I think people have discovered that Washington is a really great place to live,” de Groen said.