After years of slowly declining enrollment at the Vashon School District, school officials are pleased to see a large crop of new students at the elementary school this year.

Though enrollment across the district is still slightly down, Chautauqua, the school that typically sees smaller class sizes each year, is up by about 15 kids. And the actual number of new faces is closer to 30, Chautauqua administrators say, since a large class of fifth graders graduated last year.

Some Chautauqua classes are now brimming with up to 30 students. The school even hired a new para-educator to help with the large number of fifth graders and to corral students at the buses.

“It has been a big growth,” said Principal Jodie Metzger. “It was an overwhelming sense of new children, and it has been all fall. We feel that change.”

School officials aren’t ready to declare that enrollment is back on an upward path, but they say they’re encouraged by the numbers at Chautauqua.

“If it’s primarily kids who have moved to the Island, that would be a nice trend,” said Superintendent Michael Soltman.

The news comes after some have suggested Vashon — with an aging population and statistically fewer young families — is slowly becoming a retirement community.

The school district, now at about 1,420 students, has lost about 150 kids since its most recent peak in 2000. Since then there have been some upticks in enrollment, but most years have seen a slight decline, and now the district’s younger classes are substantially smaller than those at the high school. Last year’s senior class at Vashon High School was about 130, while this year’s first-grade class at Chautauqua is at 85.

It’s a downward trend many school districts are experiencing. Tom Dargel, the district’s business manger, said that because of low birth rates — a trend documented in the 2010 census — many schools in established communities are seeing falling enrollment.

But Soltman says he isn’t worried yet. The district has prevented enrollment from dropping substantially, he said, by accepting a growing number of off-Island students. The so-called commuter kids bring about $5,000 each in state funding, helping the district continue its programs.

According to school district records, in 2003, just 44 off-Island students were enrolled on Vashon. This year there are 187 commuter students, including 16 at Chautauqua, and there’s a waiting list of students wanting to attend the middle school and high school, Soltman said.

“Off-Island commuter students have kind of balanced the decline in the local population (of children),” he said.

If Chautauqua’s small burst in growth is any indication, that decline may be about to turn around.

Gillian Callison, who handles enrollment at Chautauqua, said that of the 30 new families with children at Chautauqua, more than half of them recently moved to the Island.

“I think there’s a whole lot of new families,” Callison said. “Even our kindergarten families seem to be new parents.”

School board member Bob Hennessey said he was happy to learn about new families coming into the district, but said it would be premature to call it a trend.

“I don’t think you can rely on two years worth of information to predict much of anything,” he said. “We will have our ups and downs.”

At the same time, Hennessey said, he does believe the district will get an infusion of students in the coming years. Studies have predicted the region will grow significantly in the next couple decades, he said, and he believes some of those people will inevitably come to Vashon.

In fact, according to a recent report by the Puget Sound Regional Council, a multi-county organization that looks at regional growth and transportation issues, the Puget Sound area is expected to add more than 1 million people by 2040. Unincorporated and rural areas, the council predicts, will see similar — though not as extreme — growth.

Some real estate agents say they’re already seeing more families move to Vashon.

Susan Lofland, a realtor at John L. Scott, said that a few years ago during the peak in home prices, most of her clients were older couples. Now, she said, about half the clients she works with are young families moving to the Island with children ranging from newborn babies to middle schoolers.

“There’s no question about it that the shift over the last year and a half has been toward a greater percentage of my business being young families,” she said.

Ken Zaglin, who owns the John L. Scott office on Vashon, says the evidence is anecdotal but he wouldn’t be surprised if more families are coming to Vashon — though he noted they could be replacing families that have moved off the Island.

With home prices down and interest rates good, Zaglin said, home sales on the Island are up substantially compared to last year.

“We’re seeing an increase in people who have been sitting on the fence on making a decision to move to Vashon,” he said. “It’s an OK time to buy.”

The school district, meanwhile, isn’t making any assumptions. The new high school, projected to last more than 50 years, is being built to hold about 525 students, just 35 more than the high school’s current population.

Soltman is hoping, however, that more commuter students will come to Chautauqua to fill in some of the smaller classes. It’s one reason the district recently installed a supervisor to ride the ferry with elementary school commuters.

“Ferry monitors are able to provide supervision and give parents more confidence and trust to put their kids on the ferry every day,” he said.

The district is also looking to attract more exchange students, another measure that Soltman said would bolster enrollment and enrich the school community.

Vashon High School has applied to be one of a select number of schools in the Seattle area that can accept high school students from other countries on a special exchange visa. The high school recently had a site visit by the Department of Homeland Security, Soltman said, and the district expects it will be approved for the program soon.

If approved, the door would be opened to a new population of foreign students — many from China and Japan — who want to study in the U.S. Soltman said the district would charge tuition to the exchange students, though he wasn’t sure how much.

“There’s quite a demand for placement,” he said. “I think it would bring good diversity to the school population and enhance community.”