Despite recent efforts to preserve salmon populations on Vashon and throughout Puget Sound, ocean conditions are wreaking havoc on fish populations and raising concerns about the 2016 salmon season.

The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) last week began the annual process of developing salmon-fishing seasons and announced that expected low returns of coho salmon “could put a damper on salmon fisheries” throughout the state.

According to a statement from WDFW, the forecast of about 256,000 Puget Sound coho is 71 percent smaller than the size of the run predicted in 2015.

“Unfavorable ocean conditions led to fewer coho salmon returning last year than we anticipated,” John Long, salmon fisheries policy lead for WDFW said in the statement. “We expect to see another down year for coho in 2016 and will likely have to restrict fishing for salmon in a variety of locations to protect wild coho stocks.”

For Vashon, the low return numbers could mean fewer coho salmon in the island’s two salmon-bearing creeks: Judd Creek and Shinglemill Creek. The Vashon Maury Island Land Trust has been working for years to restore and preserve the creeks where coho salmon come to spawn every fall and have seen success in recent years.

“Ocean warming and coho is the big question right now,” Land Trust Executive Director Tom Dean said last week. “Will they come back? What worries me is that there is a consideration to stop all ocean fishing for coho and Chinook. It makes me wonder how our salmon runs will be since we were just starting to get bigger runs in Judd Creek and Shinglemill.”

Indeed, overall salmon numbers in 2015 were higher than in recent years, as Vashon Nature Center’s Salmonwatcher program reported nearly 280 salmon in the island’s streams between September and October 2015. The numbers came after a 2014 season with 218 fish counted and a 2013 with only 60 counted.

However, while overall numbers were up in 2015, coho numbers were down from 2014, as last year saw 85 coho in comparison to 2014’s 94. But the most obvious difference between 2014 and 2015 is that the number of chum salmon was way up in 2015. Vashon Nature Center statistics report 35 chum salmon were counted in 2014, and nearly 200 were counted in 2015.

Nature center Salmonwatcher coordinator Kelly Keenan said that the difference was significant and likely has to do with the fact that coho go out into the ocean and usually stay for three years before returning to streams to spawn. Chum hang out around streams and are also less “choosy” when it comes to spawning than coho are. These differences in life cycle could explain why the numbers were what they were last year, she said.

“My numbers totally flipped with coho and chum. I usually see a lot more coho, but last year the coho numbers were down so much,” Keenan said. “A lot of coho we did see were very small, and they were returning early. One of the theories is that they had gone out to the ocean and it was not working well; there was not enough nutritious food, so they returned to the streams and creeks to give it a try back here.”

She believes “the blob” of warm ocean water that has been sitting off the coast is to blame for the coho decrease. But, she said, water salinity and warmer ocean waters across the board could also be factors, as the two have also played into the recent sea star die-off.

“Salmon and sea stars are indicator species and if they are not doing well, then that means the ocean is not doing well,” Keenan said.

“The blob” and its effect on wildlife was a common thread that officials in numerous fields brought up when discussing salmon.

Joseph Bogaard, islander and executive director of the Seattle-based coalition Save Our Wild Salmon, seconded Keenan’s observations that last year’s fish were small, underfed and carrying fewer eggs. The reason he cited for the recent downturn? Warming ocean waters due to El Nino and the infamous “blob.”

“Ocean conditions off the coast go through phases,” Bogaard said. “We’ve been in a good ‘up’ cycle of good things, but it appears we’re now heading into a trough and that will affect (salmon) returns.”

The warmer oceans mean that upwellings of cold, nutrient-rich water don’t happen.

“It’s like eating junk food,” WDFW’s Tony Atkins said of the food that salmon eat in warm waters. “We had a double whammy last year with the drought. There is no normal anymore with climate change. Caution is the word.”

WDFW’s Pink, Chum and Sockeye Salmon Specialist Aaron Dufault said that last year’s Puget Sound coho returns were all below 75 percent of the normal benchmarks. The extremely low numbers and the possibility of closing fishing in the ocean could affect the fishing season in Puget Sound.

“It is still early in the process, but, in all likelihood, there will probably be reduced fisheries all over,” Dufault said.

WDFW officials and local tribes will continue meeting through April before setting final salmon fishing seasons.

With ocean conditions as they are, both Dufault and Keenan stressed the importance of preserving and restoring freshwater habitats, as they are easier to control than ocean conditions.

“Freshwater habitats are one of the most important, if not the most important, factor in salmon returns,” Dufault said. “Getting (salmon) numbers back is difficult, and you would be hard pressed to find anyone who could say the habitat in Puget Sound is great for salmon.”

Keenan said she is expecting similar numbers this year, but is curious to see whether the record-breaking rain this winter washed away enough gravel to affect spawning.

“We had quite a bit of fast water that could have wiped out spawn sites … but I definitely think all the restoration work has been paying off,” Keenan said.

She said recent work at Vashon’s Judd Creek by the Land Trust has created pools and slowed the water flow at the mouth of the creek.

“I’m really interested to see how that will affect the run this year,” Keenan said.

Meanwhile, King County’s Vashon-Maury water basin steward Greg Rabourn is working on shoreline preservation projects to ensure forager fish and eelgrass continue to be plentiful in the water around Vashon. He is currently working to preserve shoreline on Vashon’s southeast end between Inspiration and Neill points.

“The county has the most influence over habitat, and that is crucial for salmon to keep returning,” Rabourn said.