Editor’s note: Read COVID updates by VashonBePrepared in Spanish and English at tinyurl.com/yan39zeh.

As the graphs in this report show (see page 10) the Omicron wave appears to have broken on Vashon. Throughout the region, case rates have been falling, and the downward trend is clear, barring some unexpected turn of events.

Still, COVID infections continue at a dangerous level, despite the improving statistics. The case rate on Vashon and elsewhere remains well above the CDC high-risk “red line” of 100 cases per week per 100,000 people, but the classic wave-like pattern of historic pandemics has crested.

The current wave spiked on Vashon around Jan. 12, fell off, then had a secondary spike around Jan. 26. Now, moving to mid-February, the trend line has dropped sharply.

Scientists have not reached a consensus on why these waves happen. The phenomenon has been studied for many decades. For example, the so-called Spanish Flu of 1918 to 1919 had multiple waves, including one in 1920, after everyone believed the pandemic was over. That late wave came at a time when pandemic fatigue had set in, leading communities to ignore prior public health measures. A large number of preventable deaths resulted.

Vashon Community Does Better Than Most

Ever since the pandemic began, the island’s COVID-19 case rate has been running well below King County as a whole. The gap narrowed somewhat over the last six weeks, but even during the record-setting Omicron spike, Vashon’s COVID case rate was lower than the county-wide rate, according to data from Public Health — Seattle & King County (PHSKC).

In addition to the raw data from PHSKC, a computer model crafted by Medical Reserve Corps (MRC) experts explains COVID infections across King County based on several key demographics. So far, that computer model also shows Vashon doing much better than the number of cases predicted by the model.

“If we were near that predicted value, we would have had nearly 500 more cases and at least a half dozen more deaths,” said Dr. Jim Bristow of Vashon’s Medical Reserve Corps (MRC). That translates to double the current number of deaths on Vashon.

Dr. Bristow credits islanders with working together to make Vashon safer.

“Part of living in this community is taking your role in the community seriously,” he said, noting that islanders have repeatedly endured “the headache and heartache” of doing the right thing – wearing masks, testing, getting vaccinated, and quarantining for the “umpteenth time.”

At the peak, nearly half of Vashon’s COVID cases were among the island’s school-age population. Dr. Bristow credited the school district and Vashon families for swiftly bringing down COVID cases in school-age kids and limiting the further spread of the virus. “School-age kids have high rates of COVID everywhere,” he said. “Their numbers came down much faster on Vashon than elsewhere.”

Delta and Omicron brought aggressive waves of infection. It took almost 600 days for the island to log its first 200 cases. It took only 100 days for the Delta wave to infect the next 200 Vashon residents. And, during the Omicron wave, it took a mere 20 days to record the next 200 cases. Omicron has been extremely infectious despite the community’s efforts to stay safe.

Even though the Omicron wave appears to be ending, Dr. Bristow stresses that it is too early to forget about the pandemic and move ahead, as many long to do. But, he says, the path forward is clear. “The key to getting beyond this, and to protect against potential future waves, is vaccination, vaccination, vaccination,” he said.

Omicron Leaves Behind Long COVID Patients

Although there’s a perception that Omicron patients tend to have a less severe form of the disease, studies are showing that Omicron still can produce long-haul COVID.

Long COVID patients’ symptoms last more than four weeks and even many months. Long COVID symptoms include shortness of breath, fatigue, “brain fog” and an array of other problems in the heart, brain, lungs, and gut. There is not yet scientific clarity on the cause or even the incidence of long COVID, but several possible causes are getting scrutiny, including autoimmune response, micro blood clots, long-persisting infection, inflammation, or pre-existing type 2 diabetes.

Johns Hopkins Medicine provides a question and answer article with more information on long COVID at bit.ly/JH-LongCOVID.

Fourth Shot Okay for Truly Immunocompromised

The CDC recommends four shots of vaccine for immunocompromised patients because their immune systems may respond insufficiently to the vaccine, placing them at particular risk without an additional dose. The CDC asks that people discuss their medical conditions with their healthcare provider to determine whether the four-shot course is appropriate for them. More details, including the CDC definition for who is immunocompromised, can be found at bit.ly/CDC-immunocompromised.

Latest Vashon COVID Statistics

Source: Public Health — Seattle & King County (PHSKC) and Vashon EOC. PHSKC adjusts statistics from time to time as data is refined during its quality control processes. These statistics do not include all recent Vashon cases, due to the lag in posting of data to PHSKC. Home testing data is also missing because there is no comprehensive system to collect it. Hospitalizations may include some patients who tested positive for COVID on admission for other reasons.

737 = Total COVID cases for Vashon residents since the pandemic began.

17 = New cases reported since the last weekly report (53 new cases in 14 days)

14 = Patients hospitalized since the pandemic began.

5 = Deaths since the pandemic began.

92.4% = percentage of Vashon residents age 5+ who have been fully vaccinated, compared to 83.7% of the total King County 5+ population.

70.7% = percentage of vaccinated Vashon residents age 12+ with booster shots.

63.7% = percentage of Vashon residents age 5 to 11 with first doses of vaccine (59.5% have completed the series).

For King County, the PHSKC dashboard for the last 30 days says people who are not fully vaccinated are three times more likely to get COVID, 25 times more likely to be hospitalized for COVID and 33 times more likely to die of COVID.

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