It sounds like something from a Hollywood disaster movie: a magnitude 7.5 earthquake along the Seattle Fault could generate a tsunami wave as high as 15 feet at the north end of Vashon. That’s the conclusion of a state Department of Natural Resources (DNR) study, detailed at bit.ly/DNRtsunamiStudy.

Earlier this month, news broke of a possible 40-foot tsunami wave at the Seattle waterfront. That much water movement would have disastrous impacts throughout Puget Sound, so the island’s Emergency Operations Center has been analyzing the new study to learn what this might mean for Vashon.

• The initial front of a large tsunami wave could strike the north-end shoreline neighborhoods of Point Vashon and Dolphin Point less than three minutes after the start of shaking, reaching a peak height of 13 to 15 feet.

• Elsewhere on the island, the study suggests the tsunami could send a 5-foot wave onto KVI Beach. At Portage, a 6-foot wave would likely isolate Maury Island from Vashon Island by heavily damaging the road at that spot. Wave height at Point Robinson could be 4 feet.

• Tsunami inundation would not be our only challenge on Vashon. Physical destruction from the 25 seconds of shaking could be severe. The DNR model assumes the north end of the island would be lifted up by about 10 feet, and the south end by 2 feet by the time the shaking stopped. That amount of shaking and uneven uplift would likely sever electrical cables, gas pipelines, water pipelines, and roads. It would also destroy many homes.

The study’s computer model does not account for all the tsunami-related risks from this hypothetical earthquake. For example, the model does not account for local tsunamis triggered by earthquake-induced landslides. The model also does not factor in the height of the tide at the time of the earthquake.

The computer modeling team produced an animation of the simulated tsunami (see bit.ly/TsunamiAnimation), showing that the Seattle Fault Zone consists of a wide band of east-west-trending faults extending from east King County, through the Duwamish area, across the south end of Bainbridge Island, and into Kitsap County. Evidence from geologic studies and oral histories of the native Salish people show that the last tsunami-generating earthquake along the Seattle Fault took place around 1,100 years ago.

Note: Coming VashonBePrepared newsletters and Beachcomber articles will provide advice on ways to prepare for and react to an event of this magnitude. For now, prepare for a tsunami by knowing your escape route to higher ground. If you are near sea level and feel strong, sustained shaking, immediately move to higher ground because the tsunami wave could arrive within minutes.

Omicron Evolves … Again, and Again

The highly contagious BA.5 subvariant of Omicron now dominates COVID infections in our region and around the country, accounting for more than half of all cases. The BA.2.12.1 and BA.4 subvariants remain a major part of the mix as well. Meanwhile, the first cases of BA.2.75 have been detected in the U.S., Canada, Germany, New Zealand, United Kingdom, India, and Australia.

Why does this matter? It means reinfections are more likely. The virus evolves through the natural selection of mutations that make it more infectious. Successful mutations create virus subvariants that get past immunity produced by vaccinations and/or prior infection. Fortunately, primary and booster vaccinations continue to provide a high level of protection from severe disease.

As the virus evolves and immunity protection from prior vaccinations and/or infection wanes, it is critical to enhance your immunity with booster shots. To help with this effort, the FDA is evaluating broadening second-booster eligibility to include all people 18 and older. The FDA’s decision could happen later this month. In addition, the FDA has requested that vaccine manufacturers create a modified booster for the fall, that includes a component specifically targeting the Omicron variant. These modified boosters may be available by October. People who choose to be vaccinated now with currently available booster shots are expected to be eligible again for modified booster shots in the fall.

New, Simpler Suicide Prevention Lifeline Number: 9-8-8

There’s a new easy-to-remember three-digit phone number to reach the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline. When people call, text, or chat 988, they will be connected to trained counselors that are part of the existing National Suicide Prevention Lifeline network. These trained counselors listen to callers, understand their problems, provide support, and connect them to resources if necessary. The original Lifeline phone number (800) 273-8255 will always remain available to people in emotional distress or suicidal crisis, in addition to the new 988 number.

Low-Cost Hospital Care: It’s the Law Now

A new law provides free or discounted hospital care to about half the residents of Washington whose costs for care were previously not covered. HB1616 went into effect this month, co-sponsored by Representative Eileen Cody, whose district includes Vashon. The law updates and standardizes the state’s charity care law. The aim of the law is to prevent bankruptcy for people who get hit with a very large hospital bill. Washington residents within 300 percent of the federal poverty level are now eligible for financial assistance. For example, a family of four with a household income of $111,000 now qualifies for a discount of as much as 50% of their out-of-pocket costs at large hospitals (so-called Tier 1). Hospitals must give patients notice of the availability of charity care.

Latest Vashon COVID Statistics

Source: Public Health — Seattle & King County (PHSKC) and Vashon Emergency Operations Center. New and historic case counts shown here reflect test results from the public health reporting system, which does not capture results from home tests.

9 = New cases reported since the last weekly report (42 new cases in 14 days).

1,050 = Total reported COVID cases for Vashon residents since the pandemic began.

21 = Patients hospitalized since the pandemic began.

5 = Deaths since the pandemic began.

92.7% = Percentage of Vashon residents age 5+ who have completed the primary vaccine series, compared to 86.4% of the King County 5+ population.

67.7% = Percentage of Vashon residents age 5+ who have added a booster shot to their completed primary series.

For King County, the PHSKC dashboard for the last 30 days says people who are not fully vaccinated are 1.6 times more likely to get COVID, seven times more likely to be hospitalized for COVID and 10 times more likely to die of COVID.

For more resources, visit VashonBePrepared.org or visit the group’s Facebook page. Sign up at tinyurl.com/4smk364m to receive email updates in English or Spanish.